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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Geeknet, Inc. (GKNT)


GKNT last closed at $20.67 per share as can be seen from the charts. The top chart is a daily chart for GKNT and the bottom one is a weekly chart. Both of these charts have some significant features which I have marked on the charts.

Let us first look at the weekly chart as it will give us an overall  long term picture of the stock. This chart shows three years of trading. The first thing to notice is that the stock recently made a 3 year new high when it traded at $27 per share about two weeks ago, since then GKNT has pulled backed to $20.67 per share.
This incredible price movement was accompanied by heavy trading volume on the rise and drying up volume when pulling back. This usually happens when a stock is about to make a huge bullish move.
Also, on the same weekly chart we can notice that the RSI for the stock is decisively in positive territory, and its price is above both the moving averages: these two facts indicate that the stock's performance is strong and reliable.

Now, we'll look at the daily chart for a short term view on the stock. It is clear from the chart that the stock has made a huge pull back after an incredible upward move. Since the long term picture for the stock looks really good its likely that this pullback is just a regular correction and the stock will establish a good uptrend soon. On the daily chart I have marked the last four days of trading. The thing to notice is the candlestick formations for these last four days of trading: all of them are dojis. In Japanese candlestick charting a doji conveys a sense of indecision or tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, and it usually signals change in current trend. The current trend in the daily chart is a downtrend (as the stock is pulling back), and here these dojis are signifying that the stock is about to establish an uptrend.

To sum up I think that now is a really good time to stack up on this stock. The technical indicators are  flashing that it will soon start moving up. A good target price for short to medium term trading will be the most recent high the stock made i.e. $27 per share, but for long term trading the target price can be even higher.

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