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Friday, March 4, 2011

Interphase Corp. (INPH)

Interphase Corp. (INPH) is a technology company which specializes in computer peripherals. As of now it is trading at $5.20 a share. Interesting formations are appearing on INPH's chart which I would like to point out.

The following chart is a daily chart for INPH with an Ichimoku cloud overlay.


First thing to notice on this chart is that starting May 2009 INPH established a continuous downtrend which finally lasted in November 2010. During this 19 month time period the stock lost more than 80% of its value. At that time the stock was highly oversold, and was ready for a good upthrust.
Then, starting December 2010 the stock made some rapid upward moves and after about 1.5 years it finally broke above  the Ichimoku cloud on incredibly high volume. Supporting this increase was a sharp uptrend in the stock's RSI which is a very bullish indicator. Also, at the tip of this uptrend the stock broke a very significant resistance level at $6.00 leaving no overhead resistance on this 3 year chart. This clearly shows that the current tape formation for this chart is very healthy and we can expect a continued upward trend for the near short term.

Now lets look at another chart for INPH.

This is a one year daily chart without the Ichimoku overlay. On this chart we can see that after the recent high at around $6.50 the stock is now trading in a narrow symmetric range. A breakout above this range will indicate another bullish run, while a breakdown would mean a correction. So this chart is worth keeping an eye on as well.
Also, notice that recently the 50 day and the 200 day moving averages crossed over indicating a bull. Combined with that the Chaikin Money Flow indicator shows that the stock has remained above the crucial zero line for most of the last six months indicating that the stock is fueled up now and is ready for a ride. (For more on volume indicators read The Trader's Book of Volume: The Definitive Guide to Volume Trading).
Finally to decide on good sell points we shall take a look at the following all data chart for INPH.


It can be seen from this chart that the next resistance level(from 2007) is around $9.00-$10.00. So, this can be a good sell point for mid term traders. This is just a casual advice. Rely on your own intellect to choose a sell point, because finding a good sell point is more of an art than science.

(Being a pure technician I usually avoid listening to news about stocks. But going against my own beliefs I would like to throw in one: Interphase Corp's directors Strunk Christopher, and Myers Michael collectively purchased 9000 shares of INPH on 15th and 18th February.)

So to sum up I believe INPH is presenting an excellent buy opportunity, provided that the stock breaks above the narrow trading range (which may take a few weeks). That's all I have for now. Don't forget to subscribe for feeds. Have a great weekend!

18 comments:

  1. As expected, INPH broke above the narrow trading range on Tuesday giving a profit of 30% in just 4 days since I posted this pick.

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  2. When do you think this will start going down

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  3. I do not see it coming down in the near short term. However after INPH has completed its current bullish run it might present a good shorting opportunity. For now I will recommend holding INPH.

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  4. Hi Faizan,

    I have bought last week 5998 shares of INPH for an average price of $ 6,10. Do you think we will go back to the top of 16 march 2011, $7,48? You mentioned that we need to sell our shares between $9 and $10. Is that a short-term target?

    kind regards,

    Fernando

    ReplyDelete
  5. @Fernando
    I think you entered the position a bit late, ideally you should have entered when INPH was around $5.30 a share. However you can still make a decent profit.
    As I said in the post: finding a good sell point is much more difficult than finding a good buy point. I mentioned $9-$10 as target price, however that was just a suggestion for a month to 6 month hold period.
    For the near short term I think $7.4 to $8.0 is a more reliable target.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hello Faizan,

    Where is INPH going to? $3 or $8?

    Kind regards,

    Fernando

    ReplyDelete
  7. @Fernando: Sorry for late reply.

    I do not recommend sell points as a rule. Usually I would suggest sell price range(s) which are very flexible and subject to change as the price action changes. I already sold INPH when it was at $7.4 back on 6th April at a good profit.

    In my last comment on March 29th I said that $7.4 to $8.0 is a more reliable target. A few days later the stock hit $7.44 and you should have taken your profit there.

    As of now INPH's tape is not saying anything that I can read. It might hit $3 or $8 but I cannot say anything categorically.

    Regards,

    Faizan

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